2015 Oscar Preview: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

By Brian Frosti on February 18, 2015

Image via geekbinge.com

Yesterday was the last day for members of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to submit their ballots for the 2015 Oscars. These ballots will determine these films’—along with their casts’ and crews’—places in the annals of movie history.

This year there were a few standouts in the critical community, namely “Birdman” and “Boyhood,” that will look to dominate the night’s biggest awards, but there are plenty of other films with legitimate claims to Oscar gold.

This article will be your guide to who’s going to take home those trophies this weekend as well as, even more importantly, who should win them. Because my opinion matters more than The Academy’s, obviously.

Best Picture

Nominees:

“American Sniper”

“Birdman”

“Boyhood”

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“The Imitation Game”

“Selma”

“The Theory of Everything”

“Whiplash”

The top award this year is a two-man race. “Birdman” and “Boyhood” were both incredibly innovative, thought provoking, and enjoyable pictures and both are worthy of the award.

“Boyhood” was previously seen as the odds-on favorite, but “Birdman’s” recent wins at the guild awards have many rethinking that. This is one of the tightest races in recent memory and it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Will win: “Boyhood”

Should win: “Birdman”

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”

Michael Keaton, “Birdman”

Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”

Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”

Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

Another two-man race this year, Best Lead Actor, comes down to Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton. Keaton has long been considered the favorite after rejuvenating his career with his standout performance in the meta-comedy, but Redmayne’s campaign has caught fire of late.

The work he put in to portray the various stages of Stephen Hawking’s life is nothing short of impressive, though there’s just something about the way Keaton portrayed the washed up and desperate Riggan Thompson.

On an unrelated note, where the hell is Andy Serkis’ nomination? I don’t care what The Academy thinks of mo-cap performances, his performance in “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” was every bit as impressive as any of the above nominees. Time to give him his due.

Will win: Eddie Redmayne

Should win: Michael Keaton

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”

Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”

Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”

Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”

Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

This one is far more clear cut, as it would take a fairly shocking upset to see Julianne Moore lose this one. Her heartbreaking performance as linguistics professor Alice Howland as she goes through early onset Alzheimer’s has been the darling of the critical community since long before the film debuted to audiences everywhere.

Not to say that the other women in the category weren’t phenomenal; Rosamund Pike’s performance in “Gone Girl” had this writer, and men everywhere, suddenly afraid of the women in their lives, but this trophy is Moore’s to lose.

Will win: Julianne Moore

Should win: Rosamund Pike

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Edward Norton, “Birdman”

Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”

Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”

Robert Duvall, “The Judge”

J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Another obvious one, J.K. Simmons has this award locked down. His turn as the abusive conductor in “Whiplash” was my personal favorite performance of the year and he’s swept every supporting actor award he’s run into this season.  If you want to place a bet on Oscars night this is the category to do it on.

Will win: J.K. Simmons

Should win: J.K. Simmons

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”

Emma Stone, “Birdman”

Keira Knightly, “The Imitation Game”

Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

Laura Dern, “Wild”

*Insert Meryl Streep always gets nominated joke.* Now that we’ve got that out of the way we can look at the true contenders, or rather contender, as this is yet another non-race. Patricia Arquette blew away audiences and critics alike with her role as an underappreciated working class mom in “Boyhood.”

As much as I want to believe Emma Stone’s bitingly sarcastic performance in “Birdman” has a chance, Arquette is beyond reproach.

Will win: Patricia Arquette

Should win: Patricia Arquette

 

Best Director

Nominees:

Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Birdman”

Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”

Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”

Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

This years’ race mirrors that of best picture. Linklater and Iñárritu both stake the biggest claims here, and the award will likely go to whichever film doesn’t win best picture, as it has the last two years.  That said, there’s a decent chance Wes Anderson plays spoiler after the best work of his career on “The Grand Budapest Hotel.”

Will win: Richard Linklater

Should win: Wes Anderson

 

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

Jason Hall, “American Sniper”

Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”

Paul Thomas Anderson, “Inherent Vice”

Anthony McCarten, “The Theory of Everything”

Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash”

This is one of the tightest races this year as each nominee has a legitimate chance to win, though right now it appears that “The Imitation Game” has a slight leg up on the rest of the competition. The “movie within an interrogation” was the most enjoyable and quickest paced film about a mathematician since “A Beautiful Mind” (which won the award back in 2002).

Will win: “The Imitation Game”

Should win: “The Imitation Game”

 

Best Writing, Original Screenplay

Nominees:

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo, “Birdman”

Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”

E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, “Foxcatcher”

Wes Anderson and Hugo Guiness, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawer”

This time, “Birdman” and “Boyhood” share frontrunner position with “Grand Budapest.” In fact, most analysts are predicting this as one of the awards Wes Anderson and company walk away with this Sunday, though I prefer the biting satire of “Birdman.”

Will win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Should win: “Birdman”

 

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Emmanuel Lubezki, “Birdman”

Robert D. Yeoman, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski, “Ida”

Dick Pope, “Mr. Turner”

Roger Deakins, “Unbroken”

This one is looking like a lock for Lubezki, who won last year as well for his work on “Gravity.” The single continuous take in “Birdman” might have been the most impressive thing about the overall incredible movie.

Will win: “Birdman”

Should win: “Birdman”

 

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees:

“Big Hero 6”

“Song of the Sea”

“The Boxtrolls”

“The Tale of Princess Kaguya”

“How to Train Your Dragon 2”

Let me start out by saying that I loved “How to Train Your Dragon 2” and I’ll be happy when it becomes only the second animated sequel, after “Toy Story 3” back in 2010, to win the award. That said, the best animated film of the year isn’t even nominated. This trophy belongs to “The Lego Movie” as it was leagues above the rest in humor, creativity, and intelligence.

Will win: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”

Should win: “The Lego Movie”

 

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

“Citizenfour”

“Finding Vivian Maier”

“Last Days in Vietnam”

“The Salt of the Earth”

“Virunga”

As much as I’d like to see Netflix extend their conquest from the Emmys and Golden Globes into the Oscars, it seems unlikely that “Virunga” will be able to steal the trophy away from “Citizenfour.” Most analysts are picking the Edward Snowden documentary as the best of the year.

Will win: “Citizenfour”

Should win: “Citizenfour”

 

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:

“Ida”

“Leviathan”

“Tangerine”

“Timbuktu”

“Wild Tales”

Right now the favorite here is “Ida,” but every film, save for “Timbuktu,” has been rumored as the favorite at one point or another. Part of me hopes “Leviathan” wins just to hear that ridiculous pronunciation they showed off at the Golden Globes a few more times (also the film is pretty good too).

Will win: “Ida”

Should win: “Leviathan”

 

Best Production Design

Nominees:

Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Maria Djurkovic and Tatiana Macdonald, “The Imitation Game”

Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis, “Interstellar”

Dennis Gassner and Anna Pinnock, “Into the Woods”

Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, “Mr. Turner”

In “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Wes Anderson’s tastes and tropes were on full display and have never worked better. Though it faces stiff competition from “Into the Woods,” “Mr. Turner,” and “Interstellar” where Christopher Nolan insisted on using practical effects to create his rich sci-fi world.

Will win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Should win: “Interstellar”

 

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach, “American Sniper”

Sandra Adair, “Boyhood”

Barney Pilling, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

William Goldenberg, “The Imitation Game

Tom Cross, “Whiplash”

The editing category falls to a three-way race between “American Sniper,” “Boyhood,” and “Whiplash.” All three did some impressive work with the latter two being more innovative.

Will win: “Boyhood”

Should win: “Boyhood”

 

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Ark Bridges, “Inherent Vice”

Colleen Atwood, “Into the Woods”

Anna B. Sheppard, “Maleficient”

Jacqueline Durran, “Mr. Turner”

Here’s where Wes Anderson’s style comes back into play and probably wins the award, however “Into the Woods” once again provides stiff competition.

Will win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Should win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard “Foxcatcher”

Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White, “Guardians of the Galaxy”

This category comes down to a showdown between the colorful aliens of “Guardians of the Galaxy” and the eccentricities of “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” But who knows?  Maybe Steve Carell’s nose and Channing Tatum’s frosted tips will win the day?

Will win: “Guardians of the Galaxy”

Should win: “Guardians of the Galaxy”

 

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick, “Captain America: The Winter Soldier”

Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist, “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”

Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould, “Guardians of the Galaxy”

Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, “Interstellar”

Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer, “X-Men: Days of Future Past”

The only one here without a shot is “Captain America,” with “Interstellar” and “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” holding slight leads over the rest.  This is where Christopher Nolan’s aforementioned reliance on practical effects probably nets him the award.

Will win: “Interstellar”

Should win: “Interstellar”

 

Best Music, Original Score

Nominees:

Alexandre Desplat, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Alexandre Desplat, “The Imitation Game”

Hans Zimmer, “Interstellar”

Gary Yershon, “Mr. Turner”

Jóhann Jóhannsson, “The Theory of Everything”

As is the case with the Animated Feature Film category, the best option isn’t available. “Birdman’s” innovative improvised drum score accented the film better than any other score this year, but The Academy has ruled that the heavy use of established classical music in the score makes it unoriginal and thus disqualified.

Moving on from that, it’ll be tough for Academy voters to ignore Alexandre Desplat yet again after denying his work seven times in the last eight years, especially considering he’s nominated twice this year. However, his two nominations may split his votes and leave room for Golden Globe winner Jóhann Jóhannsson to walk away victorious. Really as long as it isn’t Hans Zimmer’s all-too-loud cacophony you won’t see me complaining.

Will win: “The Theory of Everything”

Should win: “Birdman”

 

Best Music, Original Song

Nominees:

“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”

“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”

“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”

“Everything is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”

“Glory” from “Selma”

I’d love to see “The Lego Movie” win something after getting snubbed, but this award is “Selma’s” to lose, especially given the star power of Common and John Legend behind the hit.

Will win: “Selma”

Should win: “Selma”

 

Best Sound Editing

Nominees:

Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, “American Sniper”

Aason Glascock and Martin Hernández, “Birdman”

Brent Burge and Jason Canovas, “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies”

Richard King, “Interstellar”

Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro, “Unbroken”

The rest of these awards are technical and obscure mumbo jumbo that even the hardest cinephiles who’ve made it this far into the list don’t want to hear about. So I’ll shut up for the rest of the article and just tell you who’s going to win. Also don’t expect me to tell you should win some of the short film categories, I do have some life outside of seeing movies.

Will win: “American Sniper”

Should win: “Birdman”

 

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees:

John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, and Walt Martin, “American Sniper”

Jon TaylorFrank A. Montaño, and Thomas Varga, “Birdman”

Gary Rizzo, Gregg Landaker, and Mark Weingarten, “Interstellar”

Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, and David Lee, “Unbroken”

Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins, and Thomas Curley, “Whiplash”

 

Will win: “Whiplash”

Should win: “Whiplash”

 

Best Short Film—Live Action

Nominees:

“Aya”

“Boogaloo and Graham”

“Butter Lamp”

“Parvaneh”

“The Phone Call”

 

Will win: “The Phone Call”

 

Best Short Film—Animated

Nominees:

“The Bigger Picture”

“The Dam Keeper”

“Feast”

“Me and My Moulton”

“A Single Life”

 

Okay I know I said I wouldn’t say anything anymore … but “Feast” was so adorable and heartfelt, how can it not win?

Will win: “Feast”

Should win: “Feast”

 

Best Documentary Short

Nominees:

“Crisis Hotline: Veteran Press 1”

“Joanna”

“Our Curse”

“The Reaper”

“White Earth”

 

Will win: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”

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