Is the New NFL Rule Crazy Enough to Work?

By Liam Wirsansky on May 28, 2020

In a constant effort to keep fans satisfied and raise the level of entertainment of the sport, the NFL has adopted a fluid system of annual rule changes to ensure that the sport is improved. In recent memory, these changes included moving back the extra point attempts to the 15-yard line beginning in the 2015 season, which caused a massive reduction in the statistical success of kickers league wide, and also allowed the defense the ability to score two points on returns. While on the surface these changes may not seem significant, the rule certainly had an impact on the outcome of several games and added another layer of tension and anxiety to the final section of game time. This is perhaps considered as the pinnacle of importance in the game and is often held under heavy scrutiny by fans and teams alike, with several variables that all have the potential to create something spectacular and unexpected.

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Recently talk of a new rule proposed by the NFL and which is still in need of approval has emerged in national media conversations, with the aim at raising the intensity and entertainment value of the game, and giving more openings to achieve a victory. In the new rule proposal, targeted at giving opportunities for teams to hedge a comeback, scoring teams, or teams with a kickoff will be able to choose to start with the ball at their own 25-yard line with a “4th and 15,” This option would essentially be the equivalent of foregoing an onside kick, and teams would have the opportunity to do this twice per game in the hopes of retaining the ball. Rather than the chaos and uncertainty that is inherent to the technique of a successful onside kick, teams will have the opportunity to run a practiced and calculated play, which could open up the chances for success, especially when considering the offense will be facing a defense that was just scored on and even possibly tired.

This rule has gained a lot of attraction because of the belief that converting an onside kick would be statistically more difficult than the proposed rule change. During the NFL’s last season only eight out of sixty-three, or 12.7 percent of onside kick attempts were recovered, while two out of seven fourth down and fifteen situations were converted at a rate of 28.6 percent. With a small sample size and a disparity in the situations that they were taken in, it may be hard to really tell which option has a higher statistical chance of being successful, but the data may show signs of hope that this new rule could be easier to convert.

The kind of excitement that this rule could bring is exactly what the NFL was built on, as they attempted to take a step away from the traditional structure of football in some key ways to spice up the level of competition and appeal. Conceivably some of the rules failed to contain themselves to be effective, but while the league was in existence the alternative style seemed attractive and stable enough to achieve a larger outreach of support had the COVID-19 crisis not caused the remainder of the 2020 season to be cancelled, along with the eventual folding of the league.

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With the decision on the proposal looming, the NFL would be wise to adopt a rule with this kind of excitement, and at least test out its effects during the preseason before implementing it if they aren’t completely sure that they want to commit to something that they believe could have the seismic and disruptive power to change the outcome of the game.

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